2011: Corporate & EM Bonds favorisiert

Gemäss den Anleihen-Experten von Henderson Global Investors profitieren die Industriestaaten 2011 weiterhin von den tiefen Zinssätzen und der quantitativen Lockerung. Während in den USA die Leitzinsen voraussichtlich gleich bleiben, könnten sie in Europa leicht anziehen. Janus Henderson Investors | 27.01.2011 09:11 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

In der EU wird im frühen Jahresverlauf noch eine Intensivierung der Schuldenproblematik erwartet. Weiterhin positiv entwickeln dürften sich hingegen die Emerging Markets. Die Hendersonspezialisten erwarten, dass langfristige europäische Anleihen im Vergleich zu britischen Anleihen weniger gut performen werden. In den USA dürften 10-jährige Anleihen im Vergleich zu 5- bzw. 30-jährigen Anleihen am meisten Value generieren. Unternehmensanleihen bieten generell bessere Chancen als Staatsanleihen, wobei Finanztiteln am meisten Potential zugerechnet wird.


Investment View

View from the Henderson Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group - 2011 outlook

Following a strong December for equity markets relative to bonds, the first few days of this year kicked off in similar fashion. The second round of quantitative easing (QE2) in the US has supported asset markets, as we expected, but the extraordinary stimulus to date has not generated the pace of economic growth that policymakers are looking for. As we embark on 2011, the Henderson Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group (ISG) set out their views on the macro outlook and prospects for fixed income markets this year.

The developed world continues to benefit from unprecedented economic stimulus, through record low interest rates and quantitative easing. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the US where a new round of quantitative easing is in place until June, and the US government continues to borrow more now to help support private spending. The process of deleveraging, through which consumers, businesses, and governments reduce their reliance on debt to finance today’s spending is continuing, but it is a slow process and has a way to go (particularly for governments and the consumer). This will likely keep growth more subdued than would normally be the case in a recovery. We are expecting growth in developed markets to remain around trend to slightly above trend pace. This pace of growth is not fast enough to bring unemployment down quickly.

In Europe, the situation is diverse, with a sharp contrast between the core Eurozone countries (Germany, France, Netherlands, etc) and the peripheral Eurozone countries (southern-Mediterranean countries and Ireland). In core Europe, growth is strong (the IFO measure of business confidence in Germany hit a record high in December), unemployment is grinding lower, and a lower euro is supporting exports. However, it could not be more different in the periphery, where countries such as Greece and Ireland are struggling to recover from this recession, remain reliant on emergency liquidity support from the European Central Bank (ECB) and are being forced to implement tough austerity measures. The ECB will want to be focusing policy on the core countries as soon as possible, but will find this hard when the periphery is suffering. We do not think that the situation in Europe has yet reached a crisis point that will require politicians in the core to propose a full solution. However, we do expect the problems to intensify in early 2011 (which is why we remain more cautious) and in the end a solution that involves debt writedowns and significant support from the core countries is the most likely outcome. This outcome will push up bond yields (lower prices) in Germany, but in the near-term, the prospect of a continued flight to quality remains.

Interest rates and bond yields

Given the degree of spare capacity and stubbornly high unemployment, the US has plenty of room to grow without inflation becoming a problem. We expect the Federal Reserve to leave official rates on hold all year (at least). In contrast, the UK has an inflation problem, and although the Bank of England continues to expect inflation to fall, it is sounding less certain. In our view, it is more likely that official rates will be increased this year in the UK or Europe than the US.

Further along the curve, core government bonds are, on average, moderately expensive but not dramatically so. Please see our previous post - Inflation report suggests a more balanced stance – where we argued that after adjusting for the effect of ultra low rates at the short-end of the curve, longer-term (forward) yields look surprisingly ‘normal’. With bond yields moderately expensive, but with a big risk of a flight to quality due to the unresolved situation in Europe, we are keeping portfolios broadly neutral in interest rate duration relative to benchmark. In this environment, we currently prefer to focus on more relative value ideas. This includes an expectation that longer-dated bonds in Europe will underperform relative to the UK, reflecting, amongst other things, the fact that the European curve is very flat. In the US, we see value in 10-year bonds relative to 5-year and 30-year bonds, and expect government bonds to outperform interest rate swaps in the UK, US, and Canada.

The Australian economy has performed very well given its links to commodities and Asia, resulting in Australian government bonds offering a significantly higher yield. We are keeping a watchful eye on any weakness in Asian economies, which could present a good opportunity to position for Australian government bond yields to fall.

Asset Allocation

There are signs that retail investor flows have begun to shift out of bonds and into equity, which could, if sustained, push up bond yields across the spectrum. Higher-rated (lower yielding) bonds would be the biggest casualties. With corporate bond yields at attractive levels relative to the expected level of defaults, we remain overweight credit by holding floating-rate secured loans and corporate bonds. At the current time, we are partially hedging this overweight (using the credit derivative iTraxx Main) to protect against short-term market weakness.

Investment grade credit markets ended 2010 pretty much where they started (in terms of yield relative to government bonds), and, on this basis, there is long-term value in corporate bonds relative to government bonds. Financials remain the main driver of volatility and the area where the biggest premium is available. The treatment of bank bonds and the prospect of ‘bail-in’ (a situation in which bank debt can be written down in a stress scenario) being applied to senior debt as well as subordinated debt, will require investors to be very mindful as to which banks to hold and the level of subordination they are willing to accept. If this is extended to senior debt, this could lead to weaker demand for investment-grade credit as a whole, at a time when risk appetite remains fragile.

Outside of financials, we like basic industrials, such as miners, who are likely to benefit from robust global growth, and are avoiding consumer-sensitive areas such as autos and non-food retail, as fiscal austerity is likely to bear down on local consumer demand. European corporates require special attention, particularly banks, utilities, and telecoms because of their natural link to the sovereign of the country in which they operate. We have generally avoided issuers in these sectors outside of core Europe, but are looking to take advantage of opportunities in strong credits such as Telefonica (Spain) and Enel (Italy) should they weaken further.

In general, we expect emerging markets to perform relatively well, despite the strong performance of the past two years. Towards the end of last year we increased exposure to emerging market (EM) currencies. The economic strength and lower indebtedness of the East relative to the West is likely to strengthen EM currencies compared to developed markets (particularly the US dollar), where monetary policy remains on hold. At the current time, we have reduced our allocation to currency strategy overall, because volatility in currency markets remains elevated post QE2 and we expect the correlation with other asset classes to be higher at this time.

January 2011

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