Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zu den UK Retail Sales, dem Konsum in Deutschland, den Kürzungen der Bank of China oder Indien´s Wirtschaft und weiteren Themen hier: Barings | 05.12.2011 09:44 Uhr
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* UK retail sales remain weak 

* US consumer confidence rebounds strongly 

* German consumption remains robust as employment and income rises

* Central banks take joint action to support financial system

* The People´s Bank of China cuts bank´s reserve requirement ratio

* Indian economy grows by an annualised 6.9% over three months to September

UK retail sales remain weak

The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey released this week revealed that 26% of UK retailers saw the volume of sales rise in the year to November, with 44% reporting a decline. The survey also showed that over the 12 months to the end of November, employment across the sector fell at the fastest rate since November 2009. Meanwhile, the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 47.6 in November, its lowest level since June 2009. This was from an upwardly revised figure of 47.8 in October (previously reported as 47.4).

The Bank of England’s measure of broad money supply increased by £8.5bn in October compared to an average monthly increase of £4.0bn in the previous six months. The central bank uses M4 money supply growth to assess the effectiveness of its asset purchases.

US consumer confidence rebounds

A report this week showed that US confidence has bounced back above July 2011 levels. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 56.0 in November, up from 40.9 in October. (The index was 59.2 in July). The Expectations Index in the report rose to 67 from 50.5. Meanwhile, the International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC) reported that chain store sales during the week ending Nov 26th gained 4.0% over the previous-year period, the strongest gain since July 30th. Week-on-week sales also rose by 1.7%.

The latest Manufacturing Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) Report On Business showed that activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the 28th consecutive month. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.7% from October´s reading of 50.8%. A separate report showed that nonfarm business sector labour productivity increased at a 2.3% annual rate during the three months to September, with output and hours worked rising 3.2% and 0.8% respectively.

A summary of current economic conditions by US Federal Reserve District – known as the Beige Book - showed that US economic activity is increasing at a slow-to-moderate pace since across all Federal Reserve Districts except St. Louis, which reported a decline in economic activity. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that US home prices in the third quarter of 2011 declined by 3.8%, an improvement over the second quarter’s 5.8% fall. The annual rate of change in September improved in 14 of the 20 regions surveyed.

Central banks take joint action to support the financial system

This week European stock market indices rose strongly as major central banks agreed to co-ordinated actions to provide support to the global financial system.

The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank moved to announce that they would cut the rate charged to other central banks for access to US dollars with a reciprocal agreement also established with regard to the domestic currencies of the other central banks. A joint statement from the banks said that the move was aimed to “ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.”

In other news, the unemployment rate in the euro area was 10.3% in October and 9.8% for the European Union (EU). Both figures were only slightly higher than previous month’s readings. Separately, a flash estimate by statistical office Eurostat showed that annual inflation in the euro area remained at 3.0% in November, unchanged from the previous month. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area declined by 1.1 to 93.7.

In German, the GfK Consumer Climate study for November showed that a rise in consumers’ willingness to buy - as well as improved employment figures and higher incomes - is supporting German growth. The report also revealed that while the economic expectations of Germans continued to fall in the month, the pace of the decline slowed. Separately, the Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing fell for the seventh consecutive month to 47.9 in November from 49.1 in the previous month. While the gauge was below 50.0 - indicating a contraction in activity - the declines are much softer than those seen during the 2008/2009 recession. The corresponding PMIs in Italy and Spain hit two-month highs - but remain below 50 – indicating that activity in those countries continues to contract but at a slower rate.

Japan’s household expenditure restrained

Japan’s Statistics Bureau said that in October average monthly income per Japanese household fell 2.8% year-on-year while consumption expenditure was 1.8% lower. A separate report revealed that Japan’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in October was 4.5%, up 0.4% from the previous month. However, the Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI showed that manufacturers increased staff numbers for a fifth consecutive month in November.

The PMI for manufacturing production was 49.1 in the month, down from 50.6 in October. The pace of reduction was the sharpest in seven months and was linked to falling new business and declining export orders. A strong yen and supply chain disruptions emanating from flooding in Thailand contributed to a reduction in new export orders. Average input costs rose for the 13th consecutive month as prices of raw materials increased. Factory gate prices continued to decline as competition for new business suppressed manufacturers’ pricing power.

Emerging market news

In a surprise move to stimulate the nation’s economy, the People´s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio that applies to China’s commercial banks by 0.5% to 21% - the first cut since December 2008. (China’s central bank has increased the reserve ratio numerous times during the past three years as a means of stemming inflation.) The move is expected to free up around 390 billion yuan, (US$61bn) in funds for the banks to lend and to help boost economic growth.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that its PMI for manufacturing fell to 49.0 in November from 50.4 the previous month, indicating the first contraction since February.

Brazil’s central bank monetary policy committee (COPOM) also sought to stimulate growth as interest rates were cut by 0.5% to 11%, the third rate cut since August. The easing of policy is consistent with the latest figures which show a moderation of inflationary pressures in Brazil. Elsewhere, in Thailand, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce rates in that country by 0.25% to 3.25% to provide further support to economic restoration and investment.

Elsewhere, official figures in India showed that the nation’s GDP in the three months to September expanded by 6.9% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Growth was particularly strong in electricity, gas and water supply, transport and financing, insurance and business services.

Company news

During the week, AMR, the parent company of American Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The US airline said that it had become necessary for the firm “to achieve a cost and debt structure that is industry competitive and thereby assure its long-term viability”. While the company has liabilities of US$30bn, it has US$4.1bn of cash at hand – enough to keep it flying during the restructuring. One of AMR’s main goals in bankruptcy will be to lower labour costs.

Separately, AT&T Inc., the largest US telephone carrier, and China Telecom Corp., the largest fixed-line phone company and broadband Internet service provider in China, agreed to expand an 11-year partnership to provide more communication services in both countries. The agreement will give China Telecom better access to provide data services to Chinese companies with units in the US. AT&T will connect China Telecom to its data networks in the US to provide service to Chinese multinationals.

Elsewhere, the National Retail Federation said that US sales over the Thanksgiving weekend hit US$52.4bn, up 16% from last year.

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