Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zum US Wirtschafts-Ausblick, Wachstum in der Eurozone, Japan´s Exportzahlen, den Verkauf von Northern Rock und weiteren Themen hier: Barings | 21.11.2011 10:24 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

* UK price pressures ease

* US economic outlook improves with strong industrial production and retail sales 

* Euro area registers growth of 0.2% in the third quarter

* Japan´s economy expands by 6% in Q3 as exports and consumption rebound following the March earthquake

* Indonesia successfully issues a US$1bn Sukuk bond

* British government to sell Northern Rock to Richard Branson´s Virgin Money

UK price pressures easing

Figures released this week showed price pressures in the UK are easing. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in the month and 5.7% higher than October last year. (In September factory prices rose 0.3% and 6.3% year-on-year.) Core PPI which excludes food, tobacco and petroleum, fell 0.1% in the month - the first fall since June 2009. Meanwhile, October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% following a rise of 0.6% the previous month. Year-on-year consumer prices rose 5.0% which was 0.2% less than September’s increase. Retail price inflation was 5.4% in October, down from 5.6% the previous month.

A separate report showed that UK unemployment rose to 8.3% in the three months to September, up from 8.1% in the three months to August. The report also revealed that average earnings rose by 2.3% in the three months to September, 0.4% lower than the increase in the three months to August. For its part, the Bank of England expects inflation to fall back sharply through 2012, partly the result of declines in the contributions of VAT and energy prices and in part because of ‘downward pressure from slack in the labour markets’. In its latest inflation report, the Bank of England said that “inflation is judged more likely to be below than above the 2% target” in two years.

US economic data upbeat

This week’s reports and statistics provided further evidence of US economic strength. The Federal Reserve’s index of industrial production, which covers manufacturing, mining and utilities, rose 0.7% in October, reflecting a 0.5% rise in manufacturing. Excluding automobile output (which increased 3.1%) manufacturing still gained 0.3% - second consecutive monthly increase. Total capacity utilisation rose to 77.8 while the previous month’s reading was revised to 77.3. The data indicate that US manufacturing shipments remain buoyant in spite of questions over European demand for US goods. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s survey showed that manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic continued to expand in November, albeit at a less robust pace than the previous survey.

US retail sales continued to rise in October: overall retail sales advanced by a better-than-expected 0.5% following a 1.1% increase the previous month. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.6% which was 0.1% stronger than September’s gain. In the week to November 12, US jobless claims continued a downward trend with a 5,000 decline – the third consecutive weekly decrease. The National Association of Home builders’ Housing Market Index, which measures current and future home sales, rose for the second consecutive month in November and recorded its strongest reading since May last year.

The Bureau of Labour Statistics said that US producer prices fell 0.3% in October after rising 0.8% the previous month. Year-on-year, the PPI in October was 6.1% compared to September’s 7.0%.

Monthly core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged in the month following September’s 0.2% rise. US CPI in October declined 0.1% after a 0.3% rise the previous month. Core consumer inflation rose 2.1%, slightly higher than September. Overall, the figures are consistent with the central bank’s view that inflationary pressures are slowly easing.

Europe’s Q3 of 2011 GDP expands 0.2%

Data this week confirmed weak growth in the euro area. Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union revealed that GDP in the region increased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2011. The growth rate was unchanged from the previous quarter. An estimate of France’s output showed that the region’s second largest economy expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September following a 0.1% decrease the previous quarter. The corresponding figure for Germany was 0.5%, led by strong growth in consumption and trade. The Federal Statistics Office revised up Q2 growth in Germany to 0.3% (from 0.1%).

Meanwhile, the euro area trade surplus expanded to €2.9bn in September, compared with a deficit of €4.4bn the previous month. Inflation in the 17-nation region was 3.0% in October, unchanged from September’s reading. Inflation was 0.3% from September to October. Industrial production in the euro area contracted 2.0% in September but increased 2.2% from the same month last year. The corresponding figures for August were increases of 1.2% and 5.3%.

Japan’s economy grows by 6% in Q3 2011

Official figures released this week showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 6% on an annualised basis in the three months to the end of September, following a contraction the previous quarter. Growth in the third quarter was the highest in a year and a half and better than had been expected. Exports and consumption rebounded strongly following disruptions to supply chains caused by the March earthquake and tsunami. For its part, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted unanimously to leave the overnight interest rate unchanged at virtually zero. In an accompanying statement, the central bank remains cautious regarding the outlook for the nation’s economy. The BoJ said “Japan’s economy will face an adverse effect from the slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen, as well as from the flooding in Thailand.”

Emerging market news

During the week, the government of Indonesia successfully issued a US$1bn Sukuk (a bond that is structured to comply with Islamic principles). The bond matures in 2018, is denominated in US dollars and was sold at an interest rate of 4%. When the government issued US$650m of five-year Sukuks in April 2009, the interest rate was 8.8%. The latest deal was, reportedly heavily oversubscribed highlighting the strong demand for Sukuks and the appetite of investors for bonds issued by the government of Indonesia. Moody’s Investors Services maintained India’s existing sovereign debt credit rating at Ba1.

Elsewhere, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) raised Brazil’s credit rating. The rating agency raised the foreign currency rating of Latin America’s largest economy to BBB, the second lowest investment grade, from BBB-, citing the country’s cautious fiscal and monetary policies. Brazil’s prudent policies are expected to lead to sustainable growth. Meanwhile, Hungary’s currency, the forint fell to a record low against the euro after S&P threatened to cut the country’s credit rating to junk. The sell-off was exacerbated by the jittery conditions of markets. However, economic fundamentals remain generally positive. Hungary enjoys a trade and current account surplus, and the government has taken firm steps to tackle the fiscal deficit and bring down the proportion of debt to GDP.

Company news

This week the British government revealed that it will sell Northern Rock, the country’s first victim of the credit crisis, to Richard Branson’s Virgin Money for £747m (US$1.2bn). There are provisions for the government to receive up to £1bn in total – still less than the £1.4bn that taxpayers invested in the bank. The sale includes 75 branches, 2100 staff and retail deposits of £16bn. Virgin Money will not lay off employees and will maintain the full branch network for at least three years. The government last year split Northern Rock into two businesses: Northern Rock Plc which it is selling to Virgin Money and Northern Rock (Asset Management) Plc which holds a portfolio of the riskiest loans.

Separately, Germany’s largest bank Deutsche Bank revealed that Allianz’s Finance Director Paul Achleitner will become its Chairman in May with current Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Josef Ackermann leaving Germany’s largest bank. (Under German law, a chief executive of a listed company may not become its Chairman without a two-year cooling-off period, unless 25% of shareholders endorse the move.) It is uncertain how the new Chairman, best known for his corporate acquisitions and disposals, will balance volatile investment banking with less volatile commercial and retail banking.

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