Barings Emerging Markets Facts & Figures

Erhalten Sie im Barings Newsletter "Emerging Markets - facts and figures" (in englischer Sprache) einen monatlichen Überblick über die wichtigsten Ereignisse des vergangenen Monats in allen Emerging Markets. In dieser Ausgabe liegt der Schwerpunkt auf die Asien-Pazifik-Region. Barings | 08.11.2011 16:01 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.
Die Highlights:
  • Im Oktober waren Investoren etwas risikofreudiger, was sicherlich an der erreichten Vereinbarung vom Euro-Gipfel zusammen hängt. Auch waren die gemeldeten Ergebnisse wichtiger Unternehmen so gut wie die Erwartungen darüber.
  • Von einigen Ausnahmen abgesehen, haben die Emerging Markets starke Gewinne gesehen und auch die Nachrichtenlage aus den Emerging Markets war im letzten Monat gut.
  • Einige high-profile Unternehmensverträge aus dem letzten Monat zeigen, dass multi-nationale Unternehmen exzellente Investmentmöglichkeiten in den Emerging Markets sehen.
  • Auch Sekundärthemen wie die Stärke der Nachfrage im ländlichen Indien bleiben intakt.
  • Der Inflationsdruck läßt in den Emerging Markets nach und viele Notenbanken der Emerging Markets senken die Leitzinsen.
  • Die neuesten Statistiken aus China bestätigen, dass China ein soft-landing anstrebt. Die Nachfrage in China und in der weiteren Asien-Pazifik-Region bleibt widerstandsfähig bei dem derzeitig schwachen Zustand der Weltwirtschaft.

Review of Emerging Markets

Highlights of the month

  • Investor appetite for risk showed signs of recovering during October. Initially, this was a reaction to the agreement reached at the Euro Summit. In addition, the earnings reported by major corporations have generally been at least as good as expectations
  • With few exceptions, emerging equity markets saw strong gains. The newsflow from the emerging markets during the month was, overall, good
  • There were several high profile corporate deals announced which indicated that multi-national companies continue to see excellent opportunities in the emerging region
  • Other newsflow highlighted that secular themes such as the strength of domestic demand in rural India, and the growth of financial services throughout the Asia-Pacific, remain intact
  • Most (although not all) emerging markets are cutting interest rates, or looking to do so. Inflationary pressures are generally declining
  • The latest statistics indicate that China’s economy is headed for a ‘soft landing’. Demand in China, and across the wider Asia-Pacific region, remains resilient given the fragile state of the global economy

Statistical summary

Global emerging markets in October

Global emerging markets – like developed markets – performed very well during the month of October with the majority of major indices seeing double digit rises.

Emerging market equities benefited from a recovery in investors’ appetite for risk. Many investors were initially encouraged by agreement reached at the Euro Summit in Brussels, in relation to ‘a comprehensive set of measures to restore confidence and address the current tensions in financial markets.’ Further, much of the economic data that was released in relation to the developed economies indicated that demand had been resilient – in spite of the various challenges. The USA’s economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011, boosted by corporate investment in equipment and software, which rose at an annual rate of 17.4%, as businesses take advantage of the depreciation and tax breaks announced by the Obama Administration. Finally, many of the corporate results for major companies in the last few weeks have been at least as good as had been expected.

In the emerging markets, newsflow was also generally positive. There were several high profile corporate deals that highlight how the management of diverse major businesses are keen to extend their operational reach in emerging markets. For example, global brewing giant SABMiller Plc announced a major expansion in Central and Eastern Europe. SABMiller will transfer its Russian and Ukrainian beer businesses, which are worth US$1.9bn, to Turkey’s Anadolu Efes. In return, SABMiller will take a 24% stake in the combined company. Anadolu Group will remain the largest shareholder in the combined business
with a reduced holding of 42.8%. Anadolu Efes accounts for about 90% of the market for beer in Turkey, and around 70% of the country’s soft drinks market.

Meanwhile, Bank of Nova Scotia, the third-largest Canadian banking group, announced that it would spend around US$1bn to buy a 51% stake in Banco Colpatria Red Multibanca Colpatria SA. The transaction – which is the Canadian bank’s largest ever international takeover – will be financed in stock and in cash. Earlier in 2011, Mercantil Colpatria, the holding company of the Pacheco family that founded the Colombian bank in 1955, bought bank General Electric Co’s 49.8% stake in Banco Colpatria. In essence, the family has exchanged one major multi-national partner for another.

Japan’s Nissan Motor Company said in early October that it is looking to invest BRL2.6bn (US$1.4bn) in a new assembly plant at Resende, Brazil, which is near Rio de Janeiro. Nissan’s decision is influenced by the growth potential of the Brazilian motor market, which has expanded by 10% annually over the last five years. In addition, the recently increased taxes on some vehicles whose use of local components is less than 65% of the total is a further incentive to make cars for Brazilians in Brazil. Finally, and like other major Japanese multi-nationals, Nissan has had to deal with the general strength of the yen.

Like many of its emerging markets counterparts, the Central Bank of Brazil is taking advantage of moderating inflationary pressures to ease monetary policy. In the third week of the month, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) cut the benchmark Selic rate from 12.0% to 11.5%. The latest statistics show that, as measured by the IPCA-15 index, year-on-year inflation slipped from 7.33% in mid-September to 7.12% in mid-October.

Region in focus: the Asia-Pacific

The emerging markets of the Asia-Pacific fully participated in the recovery of share prices during the month of October. In mid-October, China’s stockmarket surged as a result of two official announcements. One was a statement from the State Council (China’s cabinet) that the government will provide financial support and tax breaks for small companies. This is positive because a number of small companies have been suffering from a credit squeeze. The other announcement came from Central Huijin Investment Corporation, the holding company through which China Investment Corporation maintains its holdings in the ‘Big Four (partially) state-owned commercial banks and various other financial institutions. Huijin noted that it had been buying shares in the ‘Big Four’. The implication is that Huijin perceived the banks to be undervalued. During the month, there was significant newsflow which highlighted the secular, long-term, growth opportunities that exist across the Asia-Pacific region. JC Bamford Excavators, the UK company that is a leading maker of construction and excavation equipment, said that it hopes to increase sales of backhoes and other products by 15% in India thanks to burgeoning demand in rural areas of the country.

Meanwhile, in a completely different industry, AIA Group, the Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) life insurance giant that was spun out of AIG in late 2010, reported that its value of new business (VONB) rose by 53% in the last quarter, from US$160m to US$245m. The expansion was driven by the growth of AIA’s businesses in China and Malaysia. Annualised new premiums, a measure of new business, were 39% higher in the first nine months of this year than they had been in the corresponding period of 2010.

These numbers are an indication of the potential for growth of financial services in the emerging markets of the Asia-Pacific. So too was an announcement in early October from Indonesia’s Finance Minister that that country’s government will proceed with a planned US$1bn global Sukuk (i.e. bond that is structured so that it complies with Islamic principles). Elsewhere, the President of the Philippine Stock Exchange said that that bourse is looking to introduce exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and securities lending in order to promote trading by foreign investors.

During the month, several of the region’s central banks made comments, or undertook policy decisions, which reflected declining inflationary pressures and a softening of the global economy. However, these changes are taking place in the context of resilient demand across most of the emerging markets, in the Asia-Pacific region and elsewhere. In mid-October, for instance, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced that it was cutting its forecast for economic growth for 2011 from 5-6% to 5%. In its semi-annual review of exchange rate policy, the MAS said that it would slow the appreciation of the Singapore dollar. The central bank noted that, because of the deterioration in the global economic outlook, inflationary pressures were likely be reduced. Unlike other central banks, which target interest rates, the MAS sets policy by adjusting the shape, width and centre of the band within which the Singapore dollar is allowed to trade vis-à-vis a traded weighted basket of currencies, the details of which are not disclosed. In April, the MAS had increased the centre of the band.

Elsewhere, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Korea decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.25%. The Committee remains concerned about the ‘sluggish’ growth of developed economies, but noted that the emerging market economies with which South Korea trades ‘have shown favourable performances.’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in South Korea fell to 4.3% in September, while core inflation remained unchanged at 3.9%. To the surprise of many observers, Bank Indonesia, that country’s central bank, also cut its key policy rate by 0.25% to 6.5%.

As had been widely expected, the Reserve Bank of India increased its repurchase rate from 8.25% to 8.50% at the end of October. However, in the commentary that accompanied the announcement of the decision, the central bank observed that it is unlikely to increase rates further in the next review in December. This is because the central bank is looking for inflationary pressures (which have increased due to rises in prices of foodstuffs) to ease from December. The Reserve Bank also announced that banks will be allowed to determine the rates that they offer on savings accounts, which had previously been controlled. Separately, the Indian government said that it would also inject new capital into state-owned banks in order to ensure that they have 8% Tier I capital by March next year.

Encouragingly, official data from China in the third week of October indicated that that country is on track for an economic ‘soft landing.’ The economy grew by 9.1% over the year to the third quarter of 2011. In the second quarter of 2011, the equivalent figure had been 9.5%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is looking for growth of 9.5% for 2011 as a whole. Industrial production in September 2011 was 13.8% higher than it had been a year earlier. Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first nine months of this year was 24.8% higher than it had been in the previous corresponding period.

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