Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zur Staats-Schuldenkrise, der Schuldenstand Erhöhung in den USA, China´s Wirtschaft, die Entwicklung des Yen und weiteren Themen hier: Barings | 05.08.2011 22:59 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

* Data shows UK services sector expands while manufacturing activity contracts slightly

* Overnight bank deposits with the European Central Bank rise as sovereign debt crisis continues

* USA approves increase in debt ceiling

* Japan intervenes to curb yen´s appreciation

* China´s manufacturing Purchasing Managers´ Index remains buoyant

* Kraft to split its North American grocery division from its global snack business

UK services sector activity continues to expand

This week’s statistics showed that although the services sector in the UK remains robust, manufacturing appears less resilient. The Markit/CIPS survey of purchasing managers in the services industry in Britain, which accounts for about 70% of all private sector output, hit a four-month high of 55.4 in July against forecasts of a slight slowdown. The services index has registered an expansion in activity (a reading greater than 50) for every month this year. By contrast, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which registered 49.1, indicates that activity in that sector contracted slightly in July. The input prices index slowed to its lowest rate since December 2009 as prices of plastics and steel, in particular, fell. The reading for new export orders rose to 53.73, up from 51.02 in June, and suggests that global growth is helping to boost UK manufacturers.

As expected, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee voted to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5% and keep the outstanding level of gilts purchases at £200bn. Meanwhile, the central bank said that June lending to private, non-financial companies dropped by £198m on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Total mortgage lending contracted by £100m (US$164m) in the month, although the number of new loans for house purchases rose. Consumer credit registered a modest rise. The measure of money circulating in the economy, M4, which is closely tracked by the BoE’s policymakers, fell by £1.4bn for the month.

For its part, the Office for Budget Responsibility, acknowledged that the UK is unlikely to hit its target of 1.7% growth this year. The admission brings the fiscal watchdog’s estimates closer to most private sector forecasters and follows several downgrades by private sector forecasters. Indeed, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) predicts 1.3% growth this year, while the National Institute of Economic and Social Research this week revised down its UK growth estimate for 2011 by a further 0.1% to 1.3%. Moreover, the Institute expects inflation to average 1.9% over 2012, below the central bank’s 2% medium-term target. The lowered growth expectations put renewed pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to rethink his plans for fiscal policies that include tax rises and government spending cuts.

Overnight bank deposits with ECB increase

Anxiety on financial markets in the Euro area continued this week despite the recent agreement between the heads of government for an additional €109bn rescue package to try and ensure financial stability for Greece. The European Central Bank (ECB) said that overnight bank deposits with the central bank, which pays below market rates, increased to levels not seen since early February. The jump in deposits suggests that banks are hoarding funds rather than lending to each other. The ECB resumed buying Portuguese and Irish government bonds and offering loans to the region’s banks. The move accompanied a decision by the central bank to leave the Refi rate unchanged at 1.5%. The ECB has increased rates twice this year – most recently in July.

Meanwhile, the risk premium on Spanish and Italian bonds hit new highs (and prices fell). Even so, the Spanish Treasury sold €3.3bn of medium-term sovereign bonds - close to its required amount of €3.5bn - albeit at yields that were higher than previous sales of the same bonds. Yields on the secondary market for Spanish bonds subsequently declined (and prices rose) as the successful auction reassured investors that Spain is capable of financing its budget deficit and would not need to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal and seek a bail-out from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprisingly cut interest rates to close to zero and said that it would increase the supply of Swiss Francs to money markets to stem the rapid rise of the Swiss currency. The Swiss Franc is considered a safe haven by investors amid heightened risks, including a possible US credit rating downgrade and concerns over the debt crisis in the Euro area. Following the SNB’s announcement, the Swiss Franc fell from record highs against the Euro and the Dollar.

In other news, purchasing managers’ indices showed that private sector activity in the Euro area slowed to a near standstill in July as economic sentiment tumbled. On a positive note, Germany’s Economics Ministry said that manufacturing orders had risen by 1.8% in June compared with the previous month. The figure suggests that significant growth momentum remains in Europe’s largest economy.

USA approves increase in debt ceiling

Members of the House of Representatives and the Senate reached an agreement during the week to cut as much as US$2,400bn from US deficits in the next 10 years, while raising the debt limit past the 2012 presidential election. Ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service confirmed the country’s triple A credit rating but, as expected, lowered the outlook on the rating to “negative”. Moody’s cited a number of factors that might lead to a downgrade, including a “weakening in fiscal discipline” over the coming year.

Elsewhere, the Commerce Department revealed that consumer spending fell 0.2% in the month of June, the first decline since September 2009. Incomes grew by 0.1% over the month, the slowest pace since November. Adjusted for inflation, incomes rose 0.3%. The disparity between rising incomes and falling spending boosted the personal savings rate from 5% to 5.4%, a nine-month high. The data followed a report that the US economy grew by 1.3% in the second quarter as Q1 growth was revised down to 0.4% from 1.9%.

Separate Commerce Department figures showed that construction spending rose 0.2% in June, beating forecasts of a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, the US Labour Department said that initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 1,000 to 400,000 in the week ending July 30, ahead of expectations. A separate employment report from ADP, the payroll processor, showed that the private sector added jobs for the 19th consecutive month in July. Separately, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) nonmanufacturing index fell to 52.7 in July from 53.3 in June, suggesting that activity in the services sector continues to expand but at a more moderate pace. The corresponding figure for manufacturing slid to 50.9 in July from 55.3 in June. The manufacturing survey also showed that exports and imports both grew faster and several executives surveyed by the ISM noted that export demand remained “strong”.

Japan intervenes to curb yen’s strength

This week saw Japan intervene in currency markets for the third time in a year as authorities battle to slow the yen’s rapid rise against major currencies. The intervention helped the yen to depreciate almost ¥3, briefly taking through the ¥80 barrier relative to the dollar for the first time since mid-July. An “over-valued” yen makes Japan’s exports uncompetitive. Investors have become increasingly risk averse and have been buying yen amid worries of the possibility of a US credit rating downgrade and concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis. Meanwhile, Toyota warned that the strengthening yen was having a “severe” effect on its exports and said that it was considering ramping up imports of foreign parts for use in cars assembled in Japan. Separately, Japan’s domestic car sales in July fell 27.6% year-on-year, the 11th consecutive monthly fall.

Emerging market news

This week China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing in July indicated that, while the sector remains buoyant, it has expanded less rapidly in the last four months. The snapshot of industrial conditions fell to 50.7 from 50.9 in June, higher than had been expected (a figure above 50 denotes expansion). A positive development was a rise in a sub-index measuring new orders, a testament to resilient domestic demand in China. Also positive was the input cost sub-index which edged down to 56.3, the lowest this year. Evidence that price pressures are coming under control could pave the way for a gradual relaxation of government efforts to moderate growth and rein in inflation.

Meanwhile, in India the aggressive anti-inflationary policy administered by the nation’s Reserve Bank (the central bank raised interest rates for the 11th time in 18 months last week) appears to be helping to stabilise growth. HSBC’s PMI for Asia’s third-largest economy eased for a third consecutive month to 53.6 from 55.3 in June. The latest trade figures confirmed that India’s growth is still robust. India’s exports in June grew 46.5% year-on-year to $29.2bn while imports rose a healthy 42% to $36.9bn, lifting India’s trade deficit to $7.7bn.

In Russia, consumer prices in July rose 9% year-on-year compared with 9.4% the previous month. Receding inflation enabled the central bank, Bank Rossii, to leave its refinancing rate unchanged at 8.25% for the third consecutive month. In South Africa, major gold mining employers and the National Union of Mineworkers reached a two-year wage settlement of salary increases of between 7.5% and 10%. The agreement in the gold sector came a day after a similar agreement was reached to end a week-long strike in the coal sector.

Company news

US drug company Merck said that it will cut as many as 13,000 jobs, or 13% of its workforce, as it looks to slash costs and invest in emerging markets. The cuts, to be achieved by 2015, follow those announced last year when Merck said that it would reduce its staff by 17%. Merck has been looking to achieve the savings it promised when it acquired Schering Plough for US$41bn in 2009. Meanwhile, the company said that second-quarter net income jumped to US$2.02bn, from US$752m in the same period a year ago. Revenues in the second quarter rose 7% year-on-year. Merck’s share price fell over 2%.

Meanwhile, US food giant Kraft Foods announced that it would split its North American grocery division from its global snacks business less than 18 months after its hostile US$19bn takeover of Cadbury, the UK chocolate maker.

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