Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zu den Zinserhöhungen der EZB, der US Industrie, der Rettungspaket in Moskau und weitere Themen hier: Barings | 11.07.2011 09:17 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

* ECB raise rates to 1.5% in response to ´upside risks to price stability´ 

* Moody´s downgrade the rating for Portuguese government to Ba2, taking it below investment grade

* US manufacturing shows a surprising rise following improved new order numbers

* China again raises leading and deposit rates in a bid to successfully engineer a ´soft-landing´ for the economy

* The Russian government announce US$14bn rescue of Bank of Moscow - the country´s largest-ever bank bail-out

Softening Growth in the UK

Last week, much of the newsflow from the UK related to mounting inflationary pressures and heightened inflation expectations on the part of households. This week, much has focused on the softness of the UK economy. The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector fell from 52 in May to 51.3 in June, and was weaker than had generally been expected. Slower export orders and jobs growth have taken this indicator to a 21-month low. Activity in the UK construction sector did expand in June, although at a slower rate than May. Meanwhile, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) noted that the number of new cars registered in the UK in June was 6.2% lower than in the same month of 2010. A fall of 13.8% in the number of private car registrations suggests that household budgets are being squeezed. Meanwhile, the Halifax House Price Index indicated that, on average, house prices in the UK rose by 1.2% in the month of June: this contrasted with the survey carried out by Nationwide, which suggested that housing prices moved sideways.

Higher interest rates in Europe

As had been signalled over recent weeks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s Governing Council lifted its key refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% at its meeting on 7 July. The Governing Council’s move reflected concerns in relation to ‘upside risks to price stability’, which arise in part from higher energy and commodity prices. In Sweden, the Riksbank lifted its key repurchase rate, as had been widely anticipated, from 1.75% to 2.00%. The Riksbank is reacting to mounting inflationary pressures, but notes that economic growth is likely to slow.

The Markit Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 56 in May to 53.7 in June, and while this indicates that the services sector in the Eurozone is still growing, it does point to a slowdown. Growth in the services sector across the region continues to be driven by developments in France and Germany, where separate data in recent weeks has pointed to a slowing in manufacturing.

Over in southern Europe, Italy’s head of state approved a three-year budget package in a bid to reduce the budget deficit to 3.9% of GDP this year and to 0% by 2014. Meanwhile, negotiations continue over the second international bail-out of the Greek government. The Board of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents over 400 major banks around the world, indicated that it would look favourably upon buy-backs of outstanding Greek government bonds. Because the market prices of the bonds are at a deep discount to their issue prices, buy-backs would result in losses for the insurance companies and banks that hold them. However, a buy-back would reduce the overall stock of debt outstanding, and facilitate a return to financial stability. German and French banks indicated their willingness to roll-over their holdings of Greek bonds into new securities with longer maturities. Despite this, Standard & Poors said that it would regard such a move as a ‘selective default’. For its part, the ECB has confirmed that it will continue to accept Greek government bonds as collateral for loans, unless all three major ratings agencies declare the government to be in default. Elsewhere, Moody’s this week cut Portugal’s sovereign credit rating by four notches to Ba2 – a ‘junk’ (below investment grade) level – observing that the government would be unable to borrow at sustainable interest rates from bond markets for some years: Moody’s believes that the government of Portugal, like its counterpart in Greece, will require another bail-out. Moody’s decision was subsequently attacked in comments by European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho.

The relative strength of US manufacturing

Data released during the week indicated that the US manufacturing sector may be faring better than counterparts in Europe. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) published its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, which rose from 53.5 in May to 55.3. Many commentators had been looking for the PMI to fall. Production and new orders have been rising, as have employment and inventories: this may be the result of global supply chains returning to normal after the disruptions associated with the major disasters in Japan that took place in mid-March. The ISM’s non-manufacturing index slipped from 54.6 in May to 53.3 in June. New orders for the non-manufacturing (i.e. services) sector were notably weak.

Statistics from Autodata indicated that US light vehicle (i.e. cars and pick-up trucks) sales in June had been lower than generally anticipated. On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) basis, sales dropped from 11.8m units in May to 11.5m in June. This may have been a reflection of lower consumer confidence.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy confirmed that it had released 30.64m barrels of oil, worth US$3.3bn to 15 buyers from the strategic petroleum reserve that is held in underground caverns near the Gulf of Mexico. Collectively, these transactions represent the largest ever sale from the strategic reserve: they are a key part of the plan of the International Energy Agency to release 60m barrels of oil to the market in order to offset the lack of supply of crude oil from Libya, which has been disrupted by recent conflict.

Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey: confidence down

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment revealed that the main index for large manufacturers slipped in June from plus 6 to minus 9. The index is simply the difference between the percentage of respondents who say that business conditions are good and the percentage who say that conditions are unfavourable. This was the lowest level in over a year, and was below expectations. For large non-manufacturers, the index dropped from plus 3 to minus 5. For medium-sized manufacturers, the numbers were minus 4 and minus 12; for small companies, minus 10 and minus 21. However, the latest factory output statistics suggest that the economy is recovering from the disruption caused by the March earthquake and nuclear disaster. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has revised upwards its assessments of seven of Japan’s nine main regions – including Tohoku, which was affected by the disasters.

During the week, Prime Minister Naoto Kan proposed a ¥2,000bn (US$25bn) spending plan, to assist reconstruction in the disasteraffected areas, to draw on funds left over from the budget for fiscal year 2010 (which ended in March 2011).

Emerging market news

Once more, developments continued to indicate that China’s economy is near the peak of its cycle with past efforts on the part of the authorities curbing inflationary pressures and temporary growth. During the week, it was announced that the official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), a measure of conditions in the manufacturing sector, had fallen from 52.0 in May to 50.9 in June. This is the lowest reading since February 2009 and close to the level of 50, below which activity is contracting. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25 basis point rise in the key one-year lending and deposit rates, to 6.56% and 3.50% respectively – which suggests that the central bank remains concerned about the pressures of inflation, which stood at 5.5% in May.

Separately, ratings agency Moody’s said in a report that the National Audit Office’s estimate of the debt of local (provincial and municipal) governments – Rmb10,700bn – could understate the real extent of the problem by Rmb3,500bn. Moody’s fears that nonperforming local government loans could result in bad debts for the bank that are equivalent to 8-12% of all lending.

In India, data releases show that past moves by the Reserve Bank of India to tighten monetary policy is having an impact in that country. The HSBC/Market PMI for the Indian manufacturing sector slipped to a nine month low of 55.3 in June. Conversely, the PMI for the Indian services sector rose from 55.0 in May to 56.1 in June. In Thailand, the Baht rose following the electoral victory of the coalition led by the Pheu Thai party of Yingluck Shinawatra. Investors assessed that the Bank of Thailand would feel compelled to lift official interest rates in response to the inflationary and populist policies of the new government.

Over in Europe, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. The central bank also lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 2.3-4.8% to 1.9-4.5%. NBP Governor Marek Belka indicated that the central bank, which has lifted rates four times this year, may tighten monetary policy further. The Directors of the central bank of Russia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 8.25%. The statement issued by the central bank’s External and Public Relations Department noted that the Directors had been concerned by slowing growth in industrial production and a reduction in the disposable income of households. Turkey’s banking regulator, the BDDK, noted that total lending by the banks in that country had risen by 36.2% year-on-year in May: in April, the equivalent figure had been 36.0%. Turkey’s economy is overheating. The central bank is looking for loan growth to decelerate to 25% for 2011 as a whole.

In contrast, a report of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority noted that bank lending to the private sector rose by 4.6% in the first five months of 2011. Lending is growing faster in Saudi Arabia than in other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Throughout the GCC region as a whole, bank lending had been suppressed following a wave of corporate defaults in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Meanwhile, in Latin America, Brazil’s Real rose to a 12-year high relative to the US dollar. Investors continue to be attracted by the country’s strong economic growth and high after-inflation interest rates of around 6%. Central bank data shows that total capital inflows in the first four months of 2011 totalled US$42.4bn – over five times as much as the corresponding period 12 months previous: inwards Foreign Direct Investment accounted for around US$35bn of this.

Company news

During the week, details emerged about the US$14bn Russian government backed rescue of Bank of Moscow, in what is Russia’s largest-ever bank bail-out. VTB, in which the government owns a majority stake, will inject 100bn Roubles (US$3.6bn) in new capital and increase its stake in Bank of Moscow (which it acquired in February) from 46% to 75%. Russia’s state deposit insurance agency will advance 295bn Roubles (US$10.5bn) in loans on concessional terms. According to VTB, loans extended by Bank of Moscow to companies associated with former CEO Andrei Borodin which have gone bad amount to 250bn Roubles, around one-third of the troubled bank’s total assets. The bail-out raises questions about the due diligence undertaken by VTB prior to the original acquisition of its stake in Bank of Moscow.

Elsewhere, Chinese nickel company Jinchuan made a takeover bid for Johannesburg-based copper mining company Metorex that is 21% higher than the price offered for Metorex by Vale, the Brazilian iron ore producer. It remains to be seen whether or not Vale lifts its bid.

In India, the oil ministry indicated that it supports the proposed acquisition by global energy major BP to buy stakes in 23 oil and gas blocks that are owned by Reliance Industries, for US$7.2bn. If the deal goes ahead, it will be the first sizeable investment by a major oil multi-national in India.

Performanceergebnisse der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf die zukünftige Entwicklung eines Investmentfonds oder Wertpapiers zu. Wert und Rendite einer Anlage in Fonds oder Wertpapieren können steigen oder fallen. Anleger können gegebenenfalls nur weniger als das investierte Kapital ausgezahlt bekommen. Auch Währungsschwankungen können das Investment beeinflussen. Beachten Sie die Vorschriften für Werbung und Angebot von Anteilen im InvFG 2011 §128 ff. Die Informationen auf www.e-fundresearch.com repräsentieren keine Empfehlungen für den Kauf, Verkauf oder das Halten von Wertpapieren, Fonds oder sonstigen Vermögensgegenständen. Die Informationen des Internetauftritts der e-fundresearch.com AG wurden sorgfältig erstellt. Dennoch kann es zu unbeabsichtigt fehlerhaften Darstellungen kommen. Eine Haftung oder Garantie für die Aktualität, Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit der zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen kann daher nicht übernommen werden. Gleiches gilt auch für alle anderen Websites, auf die mittels Hyperlink verwiesen wird. Die e-fundresearch.com AG lehnt jegliche Haftung für unmittelbare, konkrete oder sonstige Schäden ab, die im Zusammenhang mit den angebotenen oder sonstigen verfügbaren Informationen entstehen. Das NewsCenter ist eine kostenpflichtige Sonderwerbeform der e-fundresearch.com AG für Asset Management Unternehmen. Copyright und ausschließliche inhaltliche Verantwortung liegt beim Asset Management Unternehmen als Nutzer der NewsCenter Sonderwerbeform. Alle NewsCenter Meldungen stellen Presseinformationen oder Marketingmitteilungen dar.
Klimabewusste Website

AXA Investment Managers unterstützt e-fundresearch.com auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität. Erfahren Sie mehr.

Melden Sie sich für den kostenlosen Newsletter an

Regelmäßige Updates über die wichtigsten Markt- und Branchenentwicklungen mit starkem Fokus auf die Fondsbranche der DACH-Region.

Der Newsletter ist selbstverständlich kostenlos und kann jederzeit abbestellt werden.