Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zu den Inflations-Entwicklungen im Euroland, der US Wirtschaft, Japan´s Industrie Produktion und vielem mehr hier: Barings | 03.06.2011 22:51 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

* UK manufacturing growth slows following supply disruptions in Japan

* Inflation eases in Euroland but the ECB maintains its tightening bias

* US economic recovery loses momentum as the manufacturing sector stalls

* A rebound in Japan´s industrial production in April suggests the economy has bottomed out

* China´s manufacturing PMI slows

UK manufacturing growth slows

Reports this week showed that the pace of UK manufacturing growth has eased. In this regard, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed that manufacturing slowed from a 17-year high of 6.6% year-on-year in January, to 2.7% by March. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the sector also fell to a 20-month low of  52.1 in May, from 54.4 in April, reporting the fourth consecutive monthly decline. (Any figure above 50 indicates an expansion of activity.) A significant part of the weakness in May is likely to prove temporary as companies halted production because of bank holidays while others experienced disruption to supply chains due to the Japan earthquake and tsunami. Meanwhile, the construction PMI rose to 54 in May, from 53.3 the previous month. This figure is close to the long-run average and suggests that construction is contributing to growth.

Separately, the Bank of England said that mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 45,166 in April. With the exception of last December, the April figure was the weakest level of loans to buy homes in two years – although the month was shortened by additional bank holidays. Elsewhere, the Council of Mortgage Lenders lowered its estimate of housing transactions for 2011 to 840,000 from a previous forecast of 860,000. In other news, an analysis of official forecasts revealed that UK households are expected to spend just slightly more by 2015 than they were before the financial crisis hit in 2008 as high inflation, tax rises and slow wage growth eat into disposable incomes.

Euro inflation unexpectedly eases

A preliminary estimate by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, showed that annual inflation in Euroland unexpectedly fell to 2.7% in May, a 0.1% deceleration from the previous month - but still above the central bank’s 2% target. At a meeting this week, Mario Draghi - widely expected to become European Central Bank (ECB) President in November - appeared to confirm that an increase in Euroland interest rates is likely in the next two months. He commented, “The risk of inflation is rising. There is now a greater need to proceed with monetary policy normalisation so as to prevent expectations of higher inflation becoming entrenched.” (The ECB lifted the Refi rate by 0.25% to 1.25% in April.) Separate Eurostat figures showed that the April unemployment rate in the 17-country region stood unchanged at 9.9%. In Germany, seasonally-adjusted unemployment fell a further 8,000 in May, taking the country’s unemployment rate to 7% of the workforce down from 7.1% in April.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service cut Greece’s credit rating by three notches to Caa1 from B1 and maintained its negative outlook. The ratings agency cited a growing risk that the Greek economy would fail to stabilise its debt position without a restructuring. For its part, the ECB backed the idea of encouraging banks to roll-over Greek bonds as a way of helping the country out of its financial plight, suggesting that the ECB is open to fresh ideas for bridging Greece’s finance gap. Greece has come under pressure to accept international involvement in both tax collection and privatisation of state assets – areas where it has failed to meet EU-IMF targets – in return for €60bn-€70bn of additional financing over the next 30 months. In the meantime, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet called on the European Union to take much bolder steps towards controlling fiscal and economic policies among member states, suggesting the long-term goal of establishing a European Ministry of Finance. The outgoing President warned that a drastic change in the system of economic governance in Euroland was an “urgent priority”.

US economic recovery slows

This week’s reports and data suggested that the US economic recovery is losing momentum. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 56.6 in May, from 67.6 in April, pointing to weaker manufacturing growth, the main engine driving the economy this year. The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI dropped to 53.5 from 60.4 in April, the slowest rate since September 2009. The consumer confidence index fell to 60.8 in May from 66 in April, consistent with economic growth largely in line with the long-run trend. The Commerce Department said that factory orders fell 1.2% in April, ahead of an expected 1% decline after the Japanese earthquake led to a shortage of parts. The Bureau of Labour Statistics said that productivity growth slowed to 1.8% in the first quarter compared with the 2.9% gain in the last three months of 2010. Labour costs rose 0.7% in the first quarter following a fall of 2.8% in the last three months of last year. Labour costs were 0.7% higher than a year earlier. A slowing rate of productivity growth may give a boost to the labour market because businesses may have run out of ways to extract more output from workers, meaning that they may have to start hiring new employees.

In the meantime, payroll processor ADP said that private sector job creation fell steeply in May from the revised 177,000 positions added the previous month. The ADP said that the service sector added 48,000 jobs, less than half of April’s 141,000. Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index fell by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, breaking through a 2009 low to hit its weakest level since 2002. The report showed that house prices dropped in 18 out of 20 cities in March. On a positive note, construction spending rose the most in six months in April, growing 0.4% and higher than had been expected. Separately, credit ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service warned of a “very small but rising risk” that the USA could default on its debt. The fate of the US credit outlook remains dependent on Republicans and Democrats being able to reach a deal on long-term fiscal return.

Japan’s industrial production rebounds after tsunami

Official figures showed that Japanese industrial production rebounded a seasonally-adjusted 1% in April, suggesting a bottoming out after a record decline in March due to the March earthquake and tsunami which disrupted supply chains. Separately, Naoto Kan, Japan’s Prime Minister either survived a no-confidence motion that would have forced him to resign with his cabinet or call a general election. Political rows still threaten to delay several issues which confront the nation, including maintaining government funding for the current fiscal year and reaching the nations long-term debt burden, as well as efforts to rebuild the devastated north-east coast.

The challenges facing Japan were highlighted by ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service putting the country’s sovereign debt rating on review for a possible credit downgrade.

Emerging market news

China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing growth, fell to 52 in May from 52.9 in April. The number remained above 50, signalling that the sector was still expanding. Notably, the survey has a seasonal pattern of falling 3% in May, so the 0.9 dip was relatively strong from an historical perspective. PMI data for Taiwan and South Korea showed a slight weakening of the pace of growth but confirmed that manufacturing remains robust in both countries.

In India, the HSBC PMI eased to 57.5 from 58 the previous month. The measure suggests that India’s manufacturers may be beginning to respond to tighter monetary conditions following nine successive rate rises (to 7.35%). Headline inflation in India fell to 8.7% in April, 0.3% lower than the previous month (the central bank has a medium-term inflation target of 4.5%). A separate report revealed that the nation’s GDP expanded by 7.8% in the three months to the end of March. During the fourth quarter, India’s farm output grew by a robust 7.5% compared to 1.1% during the same period the previous year. By contrast, manufacturing growth slowed sharply to 5.5%, down from 15.2% over the corresponding period 12 months previous. For the financial year ending in March India’s growth was 8.5%, up from 8% annualised growth the previous year and in line with government forecasts.

Elsewhere, Poland’s Central Statistical Office revealed that the European Union’s largest Eastern economy expanded 4.4% from a year earlier in the first quarter compared with growth of 4.5% in the final quarter of 2010. Growth in the three months to the end of March was achieved despite three recent interest rate rises.

Company news

US retailers reported mixed sales results for May. Retail Metrics said that sales at stores open at least a year rose 5.2%, slightly better than had been expected. Clothing retailer Gap reported a 4% drop in sales following April’s 8% rise. Sales at department store JC Penney fell 1% while Macy’s reported a 7.4% rise in sales, better than had been forecast. Sales were undeniably boosted by petrol sales during the month. Sales at warehouse discounter Costco surged 13%, ahead of estimates, but stripping out fuel sales and the effects of the currency, the company’s sales rose 7%. Costco’s same-store sales were up by a more modest 3.8%. Fellow warehouse club BJ’s Wholesale also benefited, with petrol sales contributing more than half of its 7.4% sales rise.

Performanceergebnisse der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf die zukünftige Entwicklung eines Investmentfonds oder Wertpapiers zu. Wert und Rendite einer Anlage in Fonds oder Wertpapieren können steigen oder fallen. Anleger können gegebenenfalls nur weniger als das investierte Kapital ausgezahlt bekommen. Auch Währungsschwankungen können das Investment beeinflussen. Beachten Sie die Vorschriften für Werbung und Angebot von Anteilen im InvFG 2011 §128 ff. Die Informationen auf www.e-fundresearch.com repräsentieren keine Empfehlungen für den Kauf, Verkauf oder das Halten von Wertpapieren, Fonds oder sonstigen Vermögensgegenständen. Die Informationen des Internetauftritts der e-fundresearch.com AG wurden sorgfältig erstellt. Dennoch kann es zu unbeabsichtigt fehlerhaften Darstellungen kommen. Eine Haftung oder Garantie für die Aktualität, Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit der zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen kann daher nicht übernommen werden. Gleiches gilt auch für alle anderen Websites, auf die mittels Hyperlink verwiesen wird. Die e-fundresearch.com AG lehnt jegliche Haftung für unmittelbare, konkrete oder sonstige Schäden ab, die im Zusammenhang mit den angebotenen oder sonstigen verfügbaren Informationen entstehen. Das NewsCenter ist eine kostenpflichtige Sonderwerbeform der e-fundresearch.com AG für Asset Management Unternehmen. Copyright und ausschließliche inhaltliche Verantwortung liegt beim Asset Management Unternehmen als Nutzer der NewsCenter Sonderwerbeform. Alle NewsCenter Meldungen stellen Presseinformationen oder Marketingmitteilungen dar.
Klimabewusste Website

AXA Investment Managers unterstützt e-fundresearch.com auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität. Erfahren Sie mehr.

Melden Sie sich für den kostenlosen Newsletter an

Regelmäßige Updates über die wichtigsten Markt- und Branchenentwicklungen mit starkem Fokus auf die Fondsbranche der DACH-Region.

Der Newsletter ist selbstverständlich kostenlos und kann jederzeit abbestellt werden.